BASELINE PREDICTORS OF ONE-YEAR DISEASE-RELATED MORBIDITY IN PATIENTS WITH NEWLY DIAGNOSED ULCERATIVE COLITIS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22551/Abstract
Early identification of factors predicting disease course in ulcerative colitis (UC) is essential for guiding therapeutic decisions and improving patient outcomes. Recognizing patients at higher risk of unfavorable evolution allows closer monitoring and timely treatment escalation. Clinical severity, disease extent, biochemical abnormalities, and concomitant infections may all influence prognosis. Among these, Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is increasingly recognized in UC, although its independent impact on disease course remains uncertain. Aim: To assess baseline clinical and biochemical severity markers, as well as concomitant CDI at diagnosis, as predictors of disease-related morbidity during the first year following UC diagnosis. Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective study including 125 patients newly diagnosed with UC and followed for at least 12 months. Collected data included demographic characteristics, clinical presentation, biochemical markers, endoscopic findings, and the presence of CDI at diagnosis. Disease-related morbidity was defined as any UC-related hospitalization occurring within the first year after diagnosis, excluding the initial diagnostic admission. Statistical analysis comprised bivariate testing and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent predictors of hospitalization. Results: Independent predictors of UC-related hospitalization were Mayo clinical score (OR=1.28; 95% CI 1.00-1.64; p=0.043), pancolitis (OR=3.45; 95% CI 1.35-8.79; p=0.009), and hypoalbuminemia (OR=3.73; 95% CI 1.09-12.71; p=0.035). CDI was present in 20% of patients but did not independently predict hospitalization (OR=1.84; p=0.265). Conclusions: Baseline clinical activity, disease extent, and hypoalbuminemia are independent predictors of early UC-related morbidity. These findings underscore the importance of comprehensive initial assessment to support early risk stratification and individualized management strategies.
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